MILLIONAIRE TRADER: STRATEGY REVEALED

There's a recurring story in trading: the one about the guy who starts small, makes mistakes, learns the hard way, and then, at some point, has a breakthrough. Suddenly, he's not "trying his luck" in the market. He's running a system.

Takashi Kotegawa, better known as BNF, is exactly that. A Japanese trader who became a legend for a very simple reason, and one that's very uncomfortable for anyone's ego: he didn't win by magic. He won by method, by discipline, by repeating the process thousands of times when most people give up after three months.

And yes, rumors have been circulating about him. That it was luck. That he had inside information. That "no one can turn so little into so much." But when you scratch the surface, what emerges isn't a dark secret. Something more mundane. And more useful.

A plan.

In this article, I'm going to tell you who Kotegawa was, what made him different, and above all, his 4-step (simple, technical, and actionable) using the tools he employed, which are now just a click away on TradingView. We'll also discuss his mistakes and what he repeatedly emphasizes: patience and discipline. Without them, it doesn't matter which indicator you use.

Who is Takashi Kotegawa (BNF) and why does it matter?

Kotegawa was born in Japan and became famous under the nickname BNF. His story is often summarized in one sentence: he turned $1,000 into $153 million in eight years. And while the figures vary depending on the source and the exact count, what matters isn't the number itself, but how it was achieved.

He started after university, with a small amount of capital, and climbed the ladder thanks to technical analysis and his ability to spot opportunities that others missed. He wasn't a network marketing "guru," nor did he sell trading courses, nor did he need to attract attention. He traded, recorded his results, learned, and repeated the process.

His most famous strategy was to capitalize on periods of high volatility in Japan, especially around market crashes and rebounds. And no, he wasn't limited to a single style. He combined day trading with swing trading when the situation called for it.

Over the years, his impact extended far beyond his own account. He became a role model for other traders, was invited to financial events, and his story is often used as an example for beginners because it has something rare: it doesn't promise shortcuts, it promises hard work.

The central idea of ​​their approach (before discussing indicators)

Kotegawa didn't become a millionaire by predicting the future. His approach is based on a very specific logic:

1. The price moves in trends and cycles.
2. The extremes (overbought, oversold, average distance) tend to normalize.
3. If you control the risk and repeat a small "edge" many times, you grow.

That sounds basic, but it's exactly what people stop doing when they see a giant candle and go in because of FOMO.

He looked for situations where the market was "over the top," but not in a hysterical way. He didn't chase vertical drops like a knife hunter. He preferred something more specific: bearish stocks that fall slowly, with a structure where a technical rebound is more likely and more actionable.

And this is where his 4-step strategy comes in.

Kotegawa's 4-step strategy (practical and straightforward)

Step 1: Identify bearish trends (but not just any bearish trend)

The first filter is almost counterintuitive for many people: look for stocks in a downtrend.

Now, a key distinction. Kotegawa focused specifically on slowly declining stocks, not on sharp drops. Why?

Because a slow fall often reflects:

• Gradual distribution, constant but not explosive sales pressure.
• Less chaos.
• Cleaner reversals for short-term swings.

In practice, what you're looking for is a chart that's falling, yes, but with some structure. With pauses. With small attempts at a bounce. With relatively orderly candlesticks.

Your goal here isn't to fall in love with the company. It's to identify a context where a technical rebound has room to happen.

Quick checklist (visual)

• Descending maximums and minimums.
• Reasonable volatility (no giant candles every day).
• Clear areas where the price reacts.

Step 2: Find stocks at least 20% below the 25-day moving average (TradingView)

This step is the heart of the technical filter that is usually attributed to Kotegawa:

Look for stocks that are 20% or more below the 25-day moving average.

Why the 25-day timeframe? It's a fairly "tradeable" short-term trend indicator. It's not as fast as a 9 or 10-day timeframe, nor as slow as a 50-day timeframe. It's in that middle ground where price tends to interact quite a bit.

If a stock is significantly below that average, you're observing a kind of stretch. A departure from the "average" that, statistically, often corrects itself. Not always. But that's where the opportunity lies.

How I would do it in TradingView (simple):

1. You open the chart.
2. Add an SMA or EMA of 25 (depending on your preference; he used averages as a guide, today many people use EMA to react sooner).
3. You measure the approximate distance of the current price to the average.
4. You keep the ones that are ≥ 20% below.

You don't have to get it down to the decimal point. This isn't a lab. The idea is to capture the concept: "it's stretched too far down.".

Step 3: Execute the entry using EMA, RSI, and MACD to confirm

This is where most people get confused. Kotegawa kept it relatively simple. It wasn't about "putting in 14 indicators and hoping the planets align." It was about confirming that the rebound made sense.

The three most frequently mentioned indicators in their process:

• EMA (exponential averages): to read direction and use it as a dynamic guide.
• RSI: to detect overselling and potential divergences.
• MACD: to confirm a change in momentum.

What kind of confirmations are you looking for? It depends on your style, but here's a typical framework that fits this approach:

1) RSI

• An RSI below 30 may indicate overselling.
• More interesting than "RSI < 30" is seeing if the RSI starts to rise while the price stops falling sharply. Sometimes a divergence appears. It's not magic, but it helps.

2) MACD

• A bullish MACD crossover, or histogram that stops falling and starts rising.
• A sign that the bearish momentum is running out.

3) EMA

• The price stops “rejecting” each approach to the mean.
• Or it recovers a short EMA (for example, 9 or 12) and stays above it, even if only slightly. This depends on the setup you use.

The entrance doesn't have to be perfect. What has to be perfect is the risk.

And this brings me to what many people skip over: the plan.

Step 4: Operation management (2 to 6 days, or up to 2 weeks) using the EMA as a guide

Kotegawa didn't stick to long-term positions in these types of trades. His typical management approach was:

• 2 to 6 days in many cases.
• Sometimes up to two weeks if the movement and the context allowed it.

And the guide? The EMA as a dynamic reference to follow the trade.

This can be translated into fairly clear rules:

• If the price stays above the EMA you're using as your "lifeline," you stay.
• If it closes below with intention (and your plan says to exit), you exit.
• If the price returns to the 25-day moving average and starts to slow down, you can take a partial position or exit completely. Because a "mean bounce" is often just that: a bounce.

These types of trades are usually "normalization" trades. You're not betting that the company will become the next Apple. You're exploiting a stretch and a pullback to the average.

A WORLD CHAMPION'S TRADING SYSTEM (UNDER THE MICROSCOPE)

A simple mental example (no smoke)

Imagine a stock that has been slowly declining for weeks. It's 22% below its 25-day moving average. The RSI is oversold and shows a small divergence. The MACD stops worsening. Volume enters the session where the price forms a rejection candle at a support level.

It's not a guarantee. It's a scenario with decent odds.

You enter with a controlled size. You place a stop-loss order where your strategy no longer holds true. You manage 3, 5, or 8 sessions. You exit when the price approaches its moving average or when your guiding EMA breaks.

Repeated 200 times, this is no longer a "trade". It's a business.

What Kotegawa learned from his mistakes (and why it saves you money)

There's a phrase I really like in trading: you're going to pay the tuition one way or another. The difference is whether you pay it with huge losses or small losses.

Kotegawa went through trial and error, like everyone else. And one of the most repeated lessons when talking about traders who survive is this:

Common mistake: not having a clear plan before entering

This is typical:

• You go in because "it looks good".
• The price is against you.
• You move the stop or you don't put it on.
• You convince yourself that "it's going to bounce back.".
• And suddenly, a small loss becomes a loss that ruins your week. Or your month.

A trading plan isn't a pretty document. It's a list of decisions already made, before emotion takes over.

Before entering, define:

• Where you enter and why.
• Where you exit if you're wrong (stop-loss).
• Where you take profit (or partial management).
• How much do you risk per trade (fixed percentage, for example 0.5% to 1%).

And yes, this is boring. But money is usually on the side of boring.

Discipline and patience (what nobody wants to hear)

Kotegawa always comes back to the same thing: discipline and patience.

Discipline for:

• Don't break your rules.
• Don't get involved in just anything.
• Do not increase size to "recover".
• Do not operate out of revenge.

Patience for:

• Wait for the setup.
• Accept that there are some days when there is no trading.
• Let the trade breathe within your plan.
• Understand that performance is measured over long periods, not in a week.

This is where something many ignore until it hurts comes in: psychotrading. If you don't learn to manage your mindset, the market becomes a machine that brings out the worst in you. Impulsiveness, anxiety, ego, fear of missing out.

And then you're no longer executing the strategy of a millionaire trader. You're improvising.

“It was luck” and other myths that should be debunked

When someone turns a little into a lot, the public looks for a quick explanation. Luck. Connections. Insider. Trap.

Can there be luck in a specific transaction? Of course. Always. Can there be luck in eight years of consistency? That changes things.

A long trajectory, with a repeatable process, usually indicates:

• risk management,
• statistical edge,
• disciplined execution,
• and many hours of screen time.

The myth of luck is convenient because it prevents you from looking at what's missing: practice.

If you want to start “like Kotegawa” (without fantasies)

I've been in the markets for almost a decade, and if there's one thing I've learned, it's that the newbie who survives isn't the smartest. It's the most organized.

If you want to take your first steps with this approach:

1. Open a demo account with a reliable broker.
2. Use TradingView to practice the 20% below the 25-day moving average filter.
3. Practice entries with simple confirmation: EMA, RSI, MACD.
4. Keep a transaction log. Take a screenshot. Reason for entry. Reason for exit. Emotional state of the moment. Yes, emotion too.
5. When you go real, keep your ego in check. Small size. Fixed risk.

And complement that with continuing education. Books, courses, serious material. Not the typical "get rich in 7 days" video. That kind of content is usually expensive, even if it's free.

Minimal risk rules for beginners:

• Never risk too much on a single trade.
• Diversify (not all in the same sector, not all in the same idea).
• Stop-loss always, even if it bothers you.
• If you don't understand why you're entering, don't enter.

Conclusion: what really explains its success

Takashi Kotegawa 's strategy can be summarized in something almost offensive in its simplicity:

• detect a controlled downward trend,
• look for stocks far removed from their 25-day moving average,
• Confirm the turnaround with basic indicators,
• manage the operation by days, following an EMA,
• and repeat without breaking rules.

That is.

It's not glamorous. It's not a secret hack. But it's real.

If you take away one key idea, let it be this: a simple strategy, executed with discipline and patience, usually beats a brilliant strategy executed impulsively. Adapt the method to your personality, your risk tolerance, and your schedule. And then repeat it until it becomes automatic.

That's where real trading begins. And honestly, that's where most people give up.

Norberto Viale( Trader and founder of Topstep Experience )

My name is Norberto. I've been investing and trading for over a decade. I'm also the author of the Topstep Experience trading course. If you want to learn how to invest and have any questions, feel free to contact me.

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